Searching for a tornado risk map today usually means one of two things: a storm is forecast and you want to know whether it's aimed at you, or one is already happening and you want to see where.
Those are different maps, published by different people, and reading the wrong one is how you end up either falsely reassured or needlessly frightened.
Reading the Day-Ahead Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center publishes convective outlooks covering today, tomorrow and further out. This is the tornado risk map noaa users are usually looking for without knowing its name, and it is genuinely the best free product in American severe weather.
Two things confuse people. The first is that the coloured categories — marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high — describe the expected coverage and intensity of severe storms overall, not the chance that a tornado hits your house.
The second is the tornado probability map, which is expressed as a percentage. That number is the chance of a tornado within about 25 miles of any given point. A 5 % tornado probability sounds negligible and is not: over a 25-mile radius, on the day, it's a meaningful risk and it is treated as one by people who do this for a living. A hatched area on top of the percentage means significant tornadoes — EF2 or stronger — are possible.
A tornado risk map tomorrow is the same product one day out, with wider areas and less confidence. Outlooks get refined through the day, so the morning version is not the last word.
What a Live Map Can and Can't Tell You
A tornado map live view shows the warning polygons in force at that moment and, usually, radar underneath. It is a picture of what has already been decided.
Warnings are drawn as polygons around the actual threat rather than along county lines. So the useful question is not "is my county on the map" but "is my dot inside the shape". People get this wrong constantly, because the county name is what gets read out.
Radar deserves a specific warning of its own. Every radar image you see has a lag — the beam has to sweep, the data has to process, the map has to load. The storm has moved since. That lag is small and it is exactly the margin people burn when they decide there's time to get somewhere.
The Live Emergency Map on this site shows active National Weather Service warnings and recent earthquakes on one national view. It's built to answer "what is happening right now", and it doesn't try to be a radar.
Which Tool for Which Question
| Your question | What to look at | What it won't tell you |
|---|---|---|
| Is today risky where I live? | SPC convective outlook, day 1 | Whether a tornado will hit your address |
| Should I change tomorrow's plans? | SPC outlook, day 2, rechecked in the morning | Timing to the hour |
| Is anything active right now? | Live Emergency Map, or NWS warnings | Where the storm will be in ten minutes |
| Where exactly is the storm? | Radar, understanding it lags reality | A safe route to drive |
| Am I in the warned area? | The polygon shape, not the county name | How long you have |
| Is my area historically risky? | Tornado History & Risk Maps | Anything about today |
If the words on the alert itself are the confusing part, Tornado Watch vs Warning settles it in two minutes. And the map is only useful if you already know where you're going — that's Tornado Preparedness.
Bookmark the outlook and the live map tonight, on the phone that will be in your hand. Finding them is not a thing to do during a warning.
FAQ: Tornado Tracker & Live Map
Where can I see today's tornado risk?
The Storm Prediction Center's day 1 convective outlook is the authoritative free product. It shows categorical risk and a separate tornado probability expressed as a percentage.
What does a 5% tornado probability mean?
A 5% chance of a tornado within about 25 miles of any point in that area, on that day. It is not negligible, and forecasters do not treat it as such.
What does the hatched area mean?
That significant tornadoes — EF2 or stronger — are possible within the shaded probability area. It is a meaningful escalation.
Can I rely on radar to know when it will reach me?
No. Radar always lags reality by a few minutes, and that gap is exactly the margin people use up deciding they have time. Use it for awareness, not for timing.
Is my whole county under a warning?
Usually not. Warnings are polygons drawn around the threat and often cover part of a county. Check whether your location sits inside the shape.
Do you publish live tornado data?
We publish the Live Emergency Map, which shows current National Weather Service warnings and recent earthquakes. This page explains how to read official products rather than duplicating them.
Sources
- NOAA Storm Prediction Center — convective outlooks, categorical risk and tornado probabilities
- National Weather Service — storm-based polygon warnings and radar products
- NOAA — WSR-88D radar update cycle and product latency
This page explains official forecast products and does not publish its own forecasts. When a warning is active or an emergency is underway, follow local authorities, National Weather Service alerts and emergency services before any general guidance. See our Editorial Policy and Sources & Fact-Checking.